A highly unusual year in new car sales has ended on a high for most manufacturers, but there are growing signs of uncertain times ahead, according to the full-year 2009 analysis by data provider JATO Dynamics.
While the Volkswagen Golf can comfortably claim the crown of Europe’s best-selling car with a 23.9 percent sales rise vs. 2008, it has done so in a market artificially stimulated by unprecedented government and manufacturer incentives that have maintained demand over the past 12 months.
“The figures we’ve seen over the past year tell a story of how incentives have driven certain markets through these tough times -- but this story is not necessarily set for a happy ending,” says David Di Girolamo, Head of JATO Consult.
JATO analysis shows a strong finish in December for France, Great Britain, Italy and Spain, all of which recorded double digit percentage sales increases, vs. the same period 2008 -- a period in the height of the recession, but without the support of scrappage incentives.
However, JATO’s analysis also shows a significant shrinking of December sales in Germany (-4.6 percent), the one major European new car market to have closed its scrappage incentive scheme. This continues a trend first spotted by JATO in November 2009.
It is supported by the situation JATO has analysed in Eastern Europe, where a lack of scrappage schemes and rising VAT has significantly restricted new car demand. For example, Latvia and Lithuania ended 2009 down 72.9 percent and 66.2 percent, respectively, while even those more aligned to Western demographics and consumer spending patterns, such as Finland, Denmark and Hungary, have seen demand drop between 20 and 60 percent.
“The concern is that these market conditions could be reflected in Western Europe in 2010,” suggests Di Girolamo. “For example, VAT is already rising in the UK, and the remaining national scrappage schemes are scheduled to close in the early part of this year. This makes for uncertain times in new car sales across some of the key Western European markets.”
Volkswagen Golf is the 2009 best-selling model across Europe, beating Ford’s new Fiesta, by almost 100,000 units.
No other models came close to these two, although the biggest beneficiary of the year overall was Fiat, with both its Panda and Punto posting double-digit European percentage sales increases vs. 2008.
A number of key models guided the brand performances in 2009, with no surprises in the fact that the top brands were those with models popular in scrappage schemes.
Volkswagen and Ford take the top two spots in 2009, exclusively due to the performance of the Golf and Fiesta. These two models accounted for over a third of all vehicles sold by these two brands.
The popularity of Fiat’s low-CO2 European model range helped it to post the highest sales increase for a volume brand, finishing the year 7 percent up compared to 2008.
Ending 2009 strongly has brought the European market to within 1 percent of 2008 sales, although the varying national performances are a further indicator of the effect on this performance of national scrappage incentive schemes. Only Austria, France and Germany posted an increase over 2008.
“It will be fascinating to see how this picture changes through 2010, as consumers react to the changing economic conditions. A good 2010 will depend on European markets emerging from recession quickly, so consumer spending does not fall too sharply without incentives,” warns Di Girolamo.
For more information visit www.jato.com, or email [email protected].
