Ford Motor Co. is offering drastic cash and financing incentives to sell new cars in an already glutted market. They’re not making much money on those sales, but they’re still building the cars because of a pay-me-anyway clause in the UAW contract. As reported by CNN last year, this clause requires Ford to pay autoworkers 95 percent of their salary even if they’re laid off, so it makes more sense to keep the production lines running and sell those cars at or near cost.The contract, and that clause, will end in September 2003, and Ford has already stated that several assembly plants will close “in mid-decade.” Since every assembly line job is supported by five more jobs at outside parts suppliers, job losses will ripple throughout the economy. Tens of thousands of people will be affected.As radical as these changes may seem, the repair industry isn’t going away. No one goes anywhere without a car. Used-car sales volumes are up for all makes, but sale prices are down. People are trading in cars with ‘negative equity,’ meaning they owe more than the car is worth, because new car financing is so cheap and new cars are so easy to buy. But the financing incentives will end and new-car sales will decline. Dealers will work even harder to increase their service business just to stay alive, but they’ll focus on high-profit margin jobs.In some parts of the country, highly qualified techs can’t find jobs because shops don’t want to pay high salaries for experienced technicians. A Ford dealer in Illinois sublets their emissions work because so few cars suffer emissions problems while under warranty that they don’t get enough work to keep an emissions tech busy. They would rather hire “B” techs at lower salaries and sublet the more difficult jobs as needed.Over in the heavy-duty world, today’s big farm tractors have several on-board computers. The one that operates the spreader uses last years’ harvest data and GPS navigation to determine how much seed and fertilizer to spread on each square yard of the field. These tractors are serviced at the farm by a visiting tech, and his first step is to interrogate the on-board computers with a laptop. In addition to analyzing the tractor’s diagnostic data, he also will access the Internet for updated service information and operating programs before starting any mechanical work.According to insurance industry data, the average heavy-duty tech is 54 years old, and many will retire over the next few years. Apparently the industry is doing precious little to train replacements because, of all the schools and training institutes across the country, only a relative handful offer courses in heavy-duty off-road equipment. Meanwhile,
vo-tech instructors complain that public schools still treat automotive training programs as a dumping ground for students with underdeveloped academic skills.These are just a few facts I’ve picked up over the past year, anecdotal bits and pieces, that when viewed in a certain way, paint a picture of radical changes in the transportation industry. For people near the end of their career, the changes will be difficult, maybe even ‘terminal.’ But younger people who know how to read the tea leaves and avoid the land mines should be able to take advantage of openings that will surely appear. And there will be great opportunities, because as radical as these changes may seem, the repair industry isn’t going away. No one goes anywhere without a car, and everything in the store arrives on a truck. And someone who knows how to think will be needed to keep them all going.
