As a tumultuous year winds down, I often get asked about what I expect to see ahead for the industry. I’ve certainly shared in previous columns some of what I see as likely future trends. But I think the lack of industry gatherings this year has a lot of people also wondering what’s happening out there now, beyond the walls of their own shop.
So as someone who has the opportunity to glimpse into different shops and different segments of the industry in every part of the country, I thought it might be just as helpful to talk here about the present rather than project about the future.
Here are a few of my recent observations.
The election is behind us. Now what? No matter who is in office, people are still going to wreck cars, insurance companies are still going to want fast and cheap, vehicles are still going to become increasingly complex. I know some shops were going to “wait until after the election” to make decisions about their company. I don’t see the connection. We still have to properly repair vehicles. That’s a nonpartisan given.
What you see now is “what’s for dinner.” I hate the overused term “the new normal.” But despite the pandemic, the riots, the wildfires and hurricanes, life for most of us has gone on. We’re dealing with it. Sure, business may be down 15 or even 25 percent, but that’s just the way it is. The truth is, if you can’t live on 25 percent than what you were doing before, you weren’t running a good business anyway.
This isn’t all that different from 2008, other than the bottom dropped out a lot faster. It went down fast, but it has come back faster, too. Maybe not fully to what it was before, but smart operators are diversifying and otherwise making it work. As always, those who are doing a good job are going to be fine, and those who aren’t, aren’t.
So I’m seeing a more optimism. Or at least a realization that this is “what’s for dinner.” If you want to eat, what you’re seeing is what’s on the plate.
People are looking for body techs once again. Starting early this fall, I starting hearing “Does anybody know a good tech?” a question I hadn’t heard much for the previous six months. That tells me two things. First, some people are getting busy again. But also there are some who didn’t have the foresight to somehow keep their good quality people through the worst of times. The smart shop owners I know understood that someday things were going to come back, and when it did, they wanted to still have the good people they had. So they kept them around.
The insurance companies are taking full advantage of the situation. Insurance companies see that shops are slow, and that some will do whatever they can to get more cars in. “Now is the time to pound on them for more discounts,” I can just see insurance companies thinking, “and tell them we’ll only pay ‘x’ for this and that.”
On the other hand, shops now more than ever are part of insurers’ claims departments. We all know major insurance companies that pulled everyone in-house this year. You haven’t seen one of their adjusters since March, and that may not change soon. They’ve shifted to photo-estimating systems, or relying solely on shops to prepare any estimates.
The good news in this: I’m starting to see a lot more shops charging an estimating fee. And they’re getting paid for it.
There’s no excuses for not learning when education is everywhere. Sure, there’s no substitute for getting out to association meetings or seminars, or for talking to fellow students at an I-CAR class. But there is now so much information and training that is no further than your laptop or desktop monitor.
I know I said at the start of this column that it would be about current observations rather than future predictions. But I will say this: If you’re not taking advantage of all the online training and webinars, you’re missing out on the knowledge that will help you in 2021 and beyond.
