Tire shipments are projected to decline by more than 6 percent this year compared to 2007, with a further 1 percent decline predicted for 2009, according to the Rubber Manufacturers Association (RMA). Total tire shipments were below 300 million for the first time since 1997, when shipments were 290 million units.
The decrease in tire shipments reflects the sharp downward revisions in the domestic economic conditions predicted for both the consumer and commercial sectors. Overall, the combined original equipment and replacement tire shipments for 2008 light vehicle and truck categories are anticipated to decrease by more than 20 million units to about 290 million total shipments compared to the 310 million total shipments in 2007.
A further slight decline of some 3 million total units to nearly 287 million total units is anticipated for 2009 as an economic rebound is unlikely to occur until the latter half of the year.
The RMA’s Tire Market Analysis Committee forecast for key categories and their respective segments for 2008 include:
- Original Equipment Passenger Tires: This category is projected to decrease by more than 14 percent to about 39 million units in 2008 as a result of continued decreases in domestic vehicle production. A further decrease of about 3 percent is expected for 2009 owing to a delayed economic recovery and continued market share gains for light vehicle imports. Note that this projection does not account for any changes to the auto industry as a result of recent requests for federal financial assistance or potential for bankruptcy.
- Original Equipment Light Truck (LT) Tires: Consumer demand for vehicles with higher fuel economy, a shift in vehicle fitments to P-Metric passenger tires and market share increases by import vehicle manufacturers have combined to significantly impact light truck vehicles fitted with LT tires. As a result, the RMA forecasts a decrease of about 34 percent in 2008 for a total of 2.9 million OE units, representing a 1.5 million unit decrease from 2007’s total. For 2009, another 100,000 unit decrease is anticipated owing to the slow economic recovery and its impact on the commercial sectors that utilize light truck vehicles.
- Original Equipment Medium/Wide-Base/Heavy On-Highway Commercial Truck Tires: For 2008, this category is predicted to decrease by about 16 percent to nearly 3.9 million units. This decrease is attributed to the larger than anticipated economic slowdown in the commercial sector. This will continue into 2009 and as a result, the RMA forecasts a further decrease of about 8 percent or 300,000 units for a total of 3.6 million units. Given this protracted economic downturn, the expected pull-forward effect of truck sales into 2009 owing to anticipated changes in EPA regulations in 2010 has been discounted.
- Replacement Passenger Tire: The slowing economy, higher energy costs and declines in miles traveled contributed to this market’s decline. As a consequence, this category will realize a nearly 2.7 percent decrease, or about 5.5 million units, reaching a level of 198 million units in 2008. No growth is expected for 2009 due to the soft economic conditions.
- Replacement Light Truck Tire: The forecast for this market segment is a 4.5 million unit decrease, or nearly 13 percent, to about 29 million units in 2008. Although the number of vehicles for this market remains steady and largely represented by small commercial vehicles, declining economic conditions and fewer miles driven will contribute to a further projected 4 percent decline in replacement LT tire shipments in 2009.
- Replacement Medium/Wide-Base/Heavy On-Highway Commercial Truck Tires: The RMA forecasts a decline to about 15.4 million units in 2008, a decrease of nearly 1.2 million units or 7.1 percent over 2007. The market will realize another decrease of 300,000 units in 2009 as fewer goods will be transported as a result of the economic slowdown and a protracted recovery.
For more information, visit www.rma.org.
