Although expanded tire sales are anticipated for 2010, this year’s total tire shipments are likely to drop by about 13 percent due primarily to sharp decreases in demand for OEM car and commercial truck tires, according to the Rubber Manufacturers Association (RMA).
Total 2009 tire shipments are expected to decline by some 36 million units to 246 million. The decrease reflects the difficult economic environment for OEMs over the past year, continued low consumer confidence and high unemployment, the RMA says.
Tire shipments peaked at 321 million in 2000.
Vehicle miles traveled is on par with 2008 levels as the domestic economic conditions for both the consumer and commercial sectors appears to have stabilized and are poised for a rebound in 2010, according to the RMA. As a result, the tire industry is expected to glean a nearly 6 percent growth in 2010, reaching 260 million units.
The RMA’s Tire Market Analysis Committee forecast for key categories and their respective segments for 2009 include:
Original Equipment Passenger Car Tires: Large decreases in domestic vehicle production due to plant shutdowns will result in a nearly 43 percent drop in 2009 OE tire shipments to about 22 million units. The federal government’s “cash for clunkers” program pulled forward future years’ vehicle sales into 2009, which mitigated an even steeper drop in OE tires. An improving economy and a rebound in vehicle production and sales are anticipated in 2010 resulting in a nearly 8 million projected increase. This does not account for any possible changes to the auto industry from further federal intervention or consumer incentive programs.
Original Equipment Light Truck Tires: This category will experience about a 9 percent decrease, or 300,000 units, in 2009 to nearly 2.7 million due to slower economic conditions and the resulting impact on the commercial sectors utilizing light trucks. Little or no growth is anticipated for 2010 as domestic vehicle production is likely to remain weak.
Original Equipment Medium/Wide-Base/Heavy On-Highway Commercial Truck Tires: A nearly 41 percent decline to about 2.3 million units is anticipated for 2009 – a decrease of some 1.6 million tires. The economic rebound anticipated for next year, along with pent up demand for vehicles, is projected to result in a net gain of about 350,000 units.
Replacement Passenger Car Tires: Shipments will decrease about 12 million units to nearly 180 million for a decline of about 6 percent. Growth is expected to resume in 2010 with the replacement sector estimated to increase by some 4 million units, or about 3 percent, as economic conditions improve. Non-RMA imports accelerated in July and August prior to the imposition of a three year Chinese import tariff on Sept. 26. These imports are anticipated to drop off dramatically and remain at depressed levels throughout the next three years.
Replacement Light Truck Tires: This segment represents a core group of consumers and the small commercial vehicle market – mainly Class 3 trucks. The onset of the economic recovery has limited the impact of the decline in light truck tire shipments to nearly 3 million, or 11 percent, for a total of about 26 million units. Little or no increase is anticipated for next year in keeping with commercial economic forecasts and the impact of the Chinese tire tariff.
Replacement Medium/Wide-Base/Heavy On-Highway Commercial Truck Tires: The market is anticipated to decrease by about 2.3 million units this year to nearly 12.6 million. Given the uneven economic rebound forecast for 2010, the market is expected to increase by less than 1 million tires to nearly 13 million.
The RMA’s Tire Market Analysis Committee is comprised of tire professionals representing the major U.S. tire manufacturers, which account for more than 90 percent of all American tire shipments. Their analyses and forecasts of current and future industry activity include a review of RMA tire industry and economic data, government trade figures, plus vehicle sales and production amounts. The committee members develop a consensus view of tire demand from this process.
For more information, visit www.rma.org.
