LAS VEGAS, Nov. 2, 2017—ADAS (advanced driver-assist systems), OEM-driven technologies and autonomous vehicles amongst topics discussed in the OEM Collision Repair Technology Summit hosted by the Society of Collision Repair Specialists (SCRS) this morning at the 2017 SEMA Show.
The panel, Scott Ulnick, chairman and managing principal of Ducker Worldwide, Matthew Doude, associate director for the Center for Advanced Vehicular Studies (CAVS), and Doug Richman, associate director of the Aluminum Association, touched on the some of the biggest trends to prepare for the in collision repair future.
Five of the industry megatrends include ESC and ADAS technologies, electrification and alternative powertrains, connected vehicles, autonomous vehicles, and new mobility solutions.
As ADAS is predicted to hit $1.51 billion by 2021, passive systems are the “low-hanging fruit” that collision repairers can go after now.
In a study done by Ducker for SEMA, it was found that passive systems in ADAS will grow significantly after a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) finding that blind spot warning and passive forward collision warning will grow by 14 percent, lane departure warning by 11 percent and heads-up display by 12 percent.
Passive systems are where the biggest growth in the market is going to be, Ulnick says.
Ulnick spoke largely on lightweighting and how global regulations are calling for compliance.
In the same study, it was found that a heavy use of aluminum and AHSS (advanced high-strength steels) shaved at least 600 pounds off of the average vehicle weight.
“It costs real money to use lighter weight materials,” Ulnick says as it gets you closer to certification and repairing the vehicle right.
Richman continued the conversation of lightweighting, suggesting there will be quite an evolution of materials over the next ten years—aluminum being the fastest growing material.
In another study done by Ducker for The Aluminum Association, mass reduction (MR) or lightweighting is an industry megatrend that will grow from seven percent today to nine percent by 2028 on average per vehicle.
“OEMs are learning that lighter vehicles are more desirable to consumers,” Richman says.
In 2015, the average mass of a vehicle is 3,835 pounds. By 2020, we’ll see a reduction to 3,735 pounds (aluminum making up 57 percent) and by 2025/2028, a weight of 3,565 pounds (51 percent aluminum).
The increase in aluminum will be significant considering only 10 percent of vehicles today are made up of aluminum. By 2028, the most common parts of vehicles will be made with a significant amount of aluminum.
- Hoods: 44 percent aluminum (2015). By 2028, that number will jump to 90 percent.
- Doors: 6 percent (2015). By 2028, 26 percent.
- Fenders: From 10 percent in 2015 to 44 percent in 2028.
- Decks/Gates: 10 percent in 2015 to 47 percent in 2028.
- Bumpers: 34 percent in 2015 to 55 percent in 2028.
The discussion concluded with Doude talking about autonomous vehicles. There are six levels of ADAS, Level 0 being no automation to Level 5 being full autonomy with no steering wheel or hard controls.
“Autonomous vehicles will excel,” he says. But also points out that in countries with no traffic regulations, such as Africa, autonomous vehicle still have a long way to go.
In 2016, a billion dollars was invested in autonomous vehicle start ups and corporations. In that same year, two billion was invested in electric vehicles.
Doude mentioned some of the significant impacts that autonomous driving could have on the collision repair industry.
- Shops would be dealing with fleets instead of individuals
- Fleets could be self-insured. (UBER)
- Insurers could shift from traditional firms to fleet operators (such as UBER) and OEMs
- KPMG predicted that by 2040, there will be an eight percent decline in accidents, but a 250 percent increase in cost of repairs.
