Clean diesels expected to outpace hybrid sales

"The conditions may now be right for a big acceleration in diesel sales in the North American market," according to the Ricardo/UBS research report "Is Diesel Set to Boom in the U.S.?" The study anticipates that diesels and hybrids will encompass 15 percent of the U.S. light vehicle market by 2012, with sales of diesels outstripping gas hybrids by 1.5 million units versus 1.2 million.

"At present, hybrid gasoline technology appears to be the preferred route in the U.S., not least due to its attraction as a visible badge of green awareness amongst higher income purchasers," the study states. Although numerous OEMs plan to launch hybrid products over the next few years, the report highlights how "this technology faces substantial manufacturing cost penalties, which are unlikely to be eroded even in mass production. Diesel has a clear cost advantage over hybrid, even when fitted with the type of complex exhaust after-treatment technologies necessary to meet future, more stringent emissions regulations."

"Diesel passenger cars and light trucks are projected to grow substantially from a relatively small base in the U.S.," concurs Dr. Walter Copan, executive vice president and chief technology officer for Clean Diesel Technologies Inc., which recently licensed a key diesel engine development to Robert Bosch GmbH.

"U.S. passenger car sales have less than 2 percent diesel market share today, whereas in Europe diesels are over 50 percent because of the higher fuel costs and other taxes. The improved fuel economy and lower CO2 output of diesels, as well as their flexibility in using biofuels, makes the diesel an attractive power plant for future mobility," Copan adds, noting that diesel hybrids are an especially enticing marketplace alternative.

Although diesel trucks are currently far more prevalent than diesel cars in this country, Copan believes the aftermarket supply chain will readily adapt to the shift away from gas. "Service and repair parts will be made available through the usual channels. As with any newer technology being applied, a service network including OEM dealers and aftermarket service will be made available," he says. "As diesel passenger cars grow in popularity, more technicians who are proficient in diesel repair will be required."

Bosch nixing NO x

The patents Bosch has agreed to license are for systems related to selective catalytic reduction, known as SCR. Copan explains that SCR has been recognized as a leading technology for controlling oxides of nitrogen (NOx) emissions through a process that's both economically feasible and capable of meeting international environmental standards now being implemented.

"In addition to providing a cost-effective control of NOx emissions, these inventions of Clean Diesel Technologies provide improved fuel economy, also contributing to reduced vehicle carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions," he says. "Products incorporating these emission control and fuel-efficiency SCR technologies have been developed by Bosch and are likely to further gain in market acceptance."

"The North American and Asian markets offer enormous growth potential," according to a statement issued by Bosch. The company says it "has made a decisive contribution to the success of the diesel vehicle, with its sporty dynamics, low emissions and economical fuel consumption."

Ready to respond

"America's diesel industry is ready to respond and add to the estimated 4.8 million diesel cars, pickups and SUVs already on the road today," reports Allen Schaeffer, executive director of the Diesel Technology Forum. "Numerous manufacturers, including Dodge, General Motors, Ford, BMW Group, Mercedes, Jeep, Audi, Volkswagen, Honda, Nissan, Hyundai and Mitsubishi, are planning to introduce new clean diesel vehicles in the next two to three years, as technological innovation promising slashed emissions meets consumer demand for fuel economy and high performance," he adds.

"As evidence of the industry's progress in reducing emissions, commercial trucks sold this year have 90 percent fewer emissions of fine particles than trucks built at any point in the past 17 years," Schaeffer says. "Today's new clean diesel trucks are so clean that it would take 60 of today's trucks to equal the emissions of a single 1988 model-year truck."

Diesels are now able to deliver superior fuel economy — typically 20 percent to 40 percent better than a comparable gasoline vehicle, Schaeffer says, "without requiring drivers to sacrifice the power and performance Americans demand."

Schaeffer goes on to contend, "Greater use of diesel technology would help the U.S. reduce petroleum consumption, improve energy security and decrease greenhouse gas emissions. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimates that America could save up to 1.4 million barrels of oil per day — an amount equivalent to the oil we currently import from Saudi Arabia — if one-third of U.S. cars, pickup trucks and SUVs were diesel-powered.

"Congress should consider extending financial incentives that encourage the purchase of new clean technologies, including new clean diesel cars, pickups and SUVs," he offers. "Diesel manufacturers are also eager to continue working with the renewable diesel fuel industry to assure the highest quality standards and performance of biodiesel blends."